Have Home Prices Levelled Off?

Whether you’re already a homeowner or you’re looking to become one, recent headlines about home prices may leave you with more questions than answers. News stories are talking about home prices falling, and that’s raising concerns about a repeat of what happened to prices in the crash in 2008.

One of the questions that’s on many minds, based on those headlines, is: how much will home prices decline? But what you may not realize is expert forecasters aren’t calling for a free fall in prices. In fact, if you look at the latest data, there’s a case to be made that the biggest portion of month-over-month price depreciation nationally may already be behind us – and even those numbers weren’t significant declines on the national level. Instead of how far will they drop, the question becomes: have home values levelled off?

Let’s take a look at the latest data from several reputable industry sources (see chart below):

The chart above provides a look at the most recent reports from Case-Shiller, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), Black Knight, and CoreLogic. It shows how, on a national scale, home values have changed month-over-month since January 2022. November and December numbers have yet to come out.

Let’s focus in on what the red numbers tell us. The red numbers are the change in home values over the last four months that have been published. And if we isolate the last four months, what the data shows is, in each case, home price depreciation peaked in August.

While that doesn’t guarantee home price depreciation has moderated, it confirms prices aren’t in a free fall, and it may be an early signal that the worst is already behind us.

According to the Cape Cod and Islands Association of Realtors, the median sales price for a single family home in January 2022 was $586, 500.00. In June it was $665,000.00 and by December, the median price was $650,000.00. This certainly suggests that, in general prices, have calmed down.

What does this mean?

If you’re a buyer who stepped out of the market mid-year because of prices, it’s probably time to get back in.

If you’re a potential seller, what are you waiting for?

Either option, let’s connect at 508-360-5664 or [email protected]. We can provide you with up-to-date information about the housing market that will help you make the best decision for your individual situation.

Talk soon…

Mari and Hank